Good-Bye To The Referendum?

An article in Le Figaro brings us the not-unexpected news that France may be actively aiding and abetting the entry of Turkey in the EU. Until now, article 88-5 of the French Constitution required a referendum before a new candidate country could be officially admitted to the body. However that may be changing:

During a meeting of Edouard Balladur's committee on institutional reform, secretary of State for European Affairs Jean-Pierre Jouyet's suggestion that article 88-5 of the Constitution be eliminated came as a bolt out of the blue.

The referendum had been sought by Jacques Chirac, then voted on by French parliamentarians at a convention in 2005 in Versailles, and is supposed to apply to all new memberships following that of Croatia in 2010, hence Turkey in particular. "Is it necessary to keep this requirement, or should we eliminate it?" asked Jean-Pierre Jouyet, who quickly added that it would be rather "delicate" to go back on a commitment that lies at the heart of the Constitution. The secretary of State declared that he was expressing his own personal opinion.

In the context of the public's mistrust of Brussels, the referendum is like a barrier against an endless enlargement of the EU, and a shield against the entry of Ankara. After the crisis generated by the "no" of the French people in May 2005, the notion of "capacity for absorption" was put forth as an explanation. And it is through the referendum that this notion is supposed to be expressed.

Why then open the possibility of abolishing this weapon now that Europe has just begun to be revived again thanks to the "simplified treaty" of last June? According to Mr. Jouyet, "France could have a difficult time with those countries who have an indisputable and undisputed interest in joining the EU, such as Macedonia or the Balkans. (...) France could block, at the last minute, the membership process, even if all conditions were met." (...) "The idea is not to abolish the referendum but to allow the head of State to choose between the referendum and ratification through a vote in Parliament," said other members of Mr. Jouyet's entourage. "It can only strengthen the position of the French negotiator," they added.

The proposal was corroborated at Elysée Palace, where, it will be remembered, candidate Sarkozy supported the abolition of article 88-5. "Only the President of the Republic can rule on the timeliness of abolishing or keeping this requirement," recalled Jean-Pierre Jouyet. The desire to undo one of Jacques Chirac's initiatives, considered as being "neither done nor to be done", does not explain everything.

Note: I can only assume that "neither done nor to be done" refers to the desire to undo article 88-5, not to the article itself.

By bringing up the possibility of abolishing a measure "that has no equivalent in the other member States," the French government will certainly win the approval of its European partners. But Nicolas Sarkozy also expects to receive benefits at the moment when he appoints a "committee of experts" to discuss the borders of Europe, and when he tries, without renouncing his own positions, to calm the heated debate on Turkey, which has always looked askance at the sword of Damocles of the French referendum. The signal will be welcomed as well by Washington, that does not hide its concern over the growing isolation of Turkey.

Very bad news for America and for France. Both countries have diabolical leaders at this moment in time. The sword of Damocles is not over Turkey, but over us, and here in America, there are no candidates for the 2008 presidency that would be any better than Bush/Rice have been.