Tuesday, May 26, 2009

EU Elections - The Pro-Sovereignty Parties

This post is an adaptation of an article from Le Figaro dated May 21:

It's a tale of two rivals who know each other well and who have been observing each other for a long time. Which one - Jean-Marie Le Pen or Philippe de Villiers - will come out ahead in the June 7 European elections? The outcome will have an impact on the leadership to the right of Nicolas Sarkozy. And the analyses differ according to the pollsters.

For most pollsters, the Front National is still in the lead, but the gap is closing with the MPF (Movement for France) and the CPNT (Hunting, Fishing, Nature, Traditions), that are presenting joint ballots under the banner of Libertas, the party of Irishman Declan Ganley. The latest indicators from CSA, published on May 17, credit the FN and and the MPF-CPNT coalition with 6% and 5% of the vote. A poll from Ifop attributes 7.5% to Le Pen and 5% to the MPF. Out own opinion poll from May 20 is very similar, with the FN receiving 6% and the MPF 5.5%. A poll from Ipsos inverts the trend and attributes 6% to Villiers and 5% to Le Pen.

Philippe de Villiers, whose mood can change rapidly, is delighted. "For a week I have felt that things are moving. It's a feeling I know well, I've known it both in the good sense and the bad, in the course of my successive campaigns. The real campaign starts now and everything will play out during the last ten days. We are the only ones who dared to transgress and give a name to the solution to the current crisis: protectionism."

If anyone objects to Villiers on grounds that it is the same platform as the FN, he defends himself: "In the mind of the public, I am more legitimate than he is on the theme of protectionism, while he is better on the theme of immigration." The deputy from Vendée (Villiers) predicts he will beat the FN and achieve 7% - 9% of the votes.

Obviously Jean-Marie Le Pen and his lieutenants don't see it that way. The leader of the FN bears a grudge against Villiers for having attempted to take voters from him in the 2007 presidential. At the time Villiers had miscalculated Le Pen's ability to acquire eligibility to run for office, in view of his age and health (something the FN was very shadowy about).

Note: Eligibility depended on getting 500 signatures from elected officials, such as mayors and councillors.

The leader of the Front National gleefully attacks the deputy from Vendée: "With Villiers you'll be eating rabbit stew with Irish sauce: beware of indigestion!"

Bruno Gollnisch, vice-president of the FN, adds his voice and accuses Villiers of being the " an opponent in the service of the court", the "eternal procurer of votes for the UMP."

"I do not sense any dynamic in favor of Libertas," adds Marine Le Pen, vice-president of the FN. Philippe de Villiers' constituents are stunned that he is running under a foreign flag," she declares. In her view, "the Front National will come out ahead of the MPF-CPNT ballots that will have only one winner: Villiers." Marine Le Pen is hoping for a score of between 7% and 8%. To her, this seems "very honorable, since our party is convalescing."

At any rate, it is probable that on June 7, the eternal rivals, Philippe de Villiers and Jean-Marie Le Pen, both longtime deputies in the EU Parliament, will reenlist and continue to stare at each other in the amphitheater at Parliament headquarters in Strasbourg.

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At May 27, 2009 8:32 PM, Blogger crusader88 said...

This extent of rivalry seems at least a little absurd; I'll bet they would do better to go after UMP voters. As they say to kids, there's no I in team, and the rival nationalist Right parties have much more than each other to be worried about.

At May 28, 2009 7:13 PM, Blogger tiberge said...

@ crusader88

I agree completely. As I was posting it, I thought "this is ridiculous". It would have been so helpful to have a coalition, based solely on the urgent needs of France.

At May 30, 2009 3:27 PM, Blogger crusader88 said...

You often cover the topic of possible partiotic coalitions, and the difficulty in forming them. You've written on the efforts of the FN, MPF, MNR, and NDP to place themselves at the head of a coalition, all of which ended in failure. Remembering the election of James Garfield, a little known dark horse, to the presidency in 1880, maybe the four should agree on some less noteworthy leader to center around, whose ego is not yet dangerously inflated.

You do not, I expect because it's not a very influential party, write about Frédéric Nihous' CPNT very often. It's a good euroskeptic party, with an emphasis on agrarian traditionalism, which has been a mainstay in French conservatism since the Revolution. Do you think the patriots should've explored a union under the CPNT's lead?

At May 30, 2009 5:40 PM, Blogger tiberge said...

@ crusader88

Your comment is very timely. I've been reading about Nihous at Le Salon Beige, and will try to post a little more about him.

Villiers speaks highly of him and claims they will remain connected in some way (not too sure what this means) after the elections.

Staunch Catholics are not likely to support him, though, because his stand on abortion, though very very moderate and predicated on numerous restrictions, is not the absolute position Catholics (in particular those who comment at LSB) want. However, I suspect, many Catholics would accept him eventually. He seems much closer to many traditions than Le Pen.

As of now, the "non-negotiable" points of the Vatican, ESPECIALLY abortion, and the issues of "anti-Zionism" and "anti-Americanism" are the ones that keep them so passionately divided (not to mention personal vendettas). However, this could change, as things worsen, and they realize they have to unite in a resistance, the way they did during WWII. At that point, if America remains pro-EU and pro-Turkey and pro-immigration, they will have no choice but to be "anti-American", since America will have abandoned its own traditions. (I just heard that the American army in Iraq held a "Gay Pride" party or celebration of some sort. I don't have the link. You can check Lawrence Auster at VFR. What a boost for our image!)


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