Saturday, August 08, 2009

Immigration: Calculating the Real Figures

It's good to be an economist and to know how to count. While we sit around wondering how many non-European immigrants there are in France, economist Gérard Pince has figured it out in an easy-as-one-two-three procedure that he shares with us in a post dated July 30. His opening paragraph describes how invalid the official figures are; he then moves on to his own method:

In fact, we have a precise starting point: that of the population in 1946 (40, 246,742), bearing in mind that foreigners and immigrants at that time were 88% ethnic Europeans. We then add to this initial population the natural growth (minus immigration) until 1974, date of the family reunification law, and we get 49,105,699 in 1975. We then apply to this figure the rate of natural growth in three French departments where immigration remained until that time negligible: la Manche, Deux Sèvres and Vendée. We arrive at the figure for 2008 of 53 million ethnic Europeans. Since INSEE (National Institute for Statistics and Economic Studies) estimates our total population in 2008 to be 62 million, it follows that black, Arab and Asian ethnicities represent today 9 million persons (plus 500,000 illegals, he adds in a footnote).

The result of this method corresponds to our daily observations. If anyone wants to challenge this figure, let him produce his own! Faced with the silence of our research institutions, our figures take on a de facto official character. (...)

In his next (more complicated) post, Gérard Pince continues where he left off:

As of January 1, 2008, the population of metropolitan France was 62 million: 53 million ethnic Europeans and 9.5 million Third World immigrants. From this real and objective data long term projections indicate that ethnic Frenchmen will be a minority in their own land in 2060. (...)

We estimate that the European population will remain at its current level of 53 million in the year 2060. The natural growth rates of our three model departments have been divided by two (for la Manche and Vendée) and by three (for Deux Sèvres) between 1975/82 and 1999/2006. Moreover, the countries of Eastern Europe without non-European populations, have already recorded negative rates (-0.3% in Hungary, -0.1% in the Czech Republic). Seen in this context, the zero rate we have predicted corresponds to a rather optimistic hypothesis.

Note: He points out in a footnote that Eastern Europe was protected from immigration by the Iron Curtain.

On the other hand, the non-European population already present on our territory will go from 9.5 to 24 million in 2060. Bearing in mind that the natural rate of growth of the 62 million inhabitants is 0.4% and that of the 53 million Europeans (calculated from our three model departments) is 0.17%, it follows that the 9.5 million Third Worlders will grow by 1.75%.

Note: He then acknowledges that there are studies indicating that the rate of growth among immigrants will slow down, but he has no evidence that this will be the case. Especially since the immigrant growth rate in the Parisian region of Seine, Seine-Saint-Denis,and Val de Marne has increased considerably since 75/82 and 99/2006.

We must also take into account the migratory waves that will occur between 2008 and 2060. In the absence of new statistics, we must base our estimates on those of 2006. That year France recorded 235,000 official entries, to which must be added about 100,000 illegals (see note at the end for an explanation of this figure), or a rounded-off total of 350,000 persons just from the Third World (Maghreb, Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia,etc...) We're using, by default, this annual figure for the entire period even though it is an optimistic guess. The Left, the large corporations, the EU Commission in Brussels and most of our intellectuals are demanding ever more immigration. Moreover, due to demographic growth and the insecurity and poverty endemic to Africa, the migratory pressures may well become greater and greater. We could, therefore, go beyond the 350,000 annual entries in the future.

Next we must calculate on a yearly basis the natural growth of these waves. We decided upon a rate of 1.75%, identical to the one we have for the population that is already here. This rate, higher than the one for Turkey (1.3%) but much lower than that of the Congo (3.1%) takes into account the growing proportion of immigrants from sub-Saharan Africa. Following these calculations, the future immigration between 2008 and 2060 will bring us a total input of 31 million persons.

So in 2060 we will have a France of 108 million inhabitants, composed of 55 million persons (24 + 31) belonging to black, Arab and Asian ethnicities and 53 million Europeans. Yes, 2060 may appear far off, but well before this date Europeans under the age of 40 will be a minority in relation to the Third Worlders of the same age group.

These results belie the affirmations of those who claim France is not a country of massive immigration. In fact, our "thought police" now acknowledge that the face of France is going to be transformed very soon and adhere, in substance, to the following line: "You were deceived for thirty years with bogus statistics. Now, the situation is irreversible. In the name of anti-racism and obligatory 'métissage', you ought to be happy to have become a minority in your own country!"

Now imagine that the Algerian government announces that soon Europeans will be in the majority in Algeria! There would be a general insurrection. That means that this "post racial" doctrine, which claims to be universal, only applies in reality to the Western populations who are told to dissolve themselves as rapidly as possible. Alas, the majority of Frenchmen are resigned to this evolution that seems inevitable.

I think, however, that there is hope this bomb can be defused. I will explain later.

Note: His solution will be the topic of another post.

Note: In one of several footnotes Pince explains how the official statistics on the number of illegal entries in 2006 are falsified, and how he arrived at the figure of 100,000:

To minimize the figures on immigration, the research groups and the media only take into account permanent immigration, since they feel that temporary migrants have no wish to remain on our territory. In reality, the temporary migrants do remain. (For example, since 2002, a circular authorizes students to apply for a salaried position when their studies are over. As for those requesting asylum, about 15% of the applications are accepted, which means that the others stay on as illegals). To these official figures are added the illegal waves of migrants. Besides those denied asylum, France grants 900,000 tourist visas every year to North and sub-Saharan Africans. The Court of Accounts speaks of certain dysfunctional elements in this system which give rise to the observation that many visitors remain illegally in France after their visa has expired. Based on this, we can, therefore, estimate at 100,000 the number of illegal entries (per year).

The photo below has little to do with the post itself. It is taken from the French Wikipedia article on the Maghreb, and shows Roman ruins in Timgad, Algeria. I found it a striking reminder of North Africa's Roman (and later Christian) heritage.

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At August 09, 2009 4:12 AM, Blogger LH said...

We have been betrayed. The worst part of the betrayal is the fact that the immigrants are allowed isolate themselves and live as before. Nations fail because their people fail, France is filling itself up with these people. Essentially you are importing the failure of the third world. If you ask a Frenchman "do you want to live in a Islamic state" he will answer no. But by importing millions of muslims without making them adhere to the French way is much the same thing.

France is not a barbarous, economically deprived wasteland because it just happened, it took countless years, wars, revolution and thought to create the France of today. Now, your intellectuals are giving it all up because they have some fairytale view that a multicultural France will be some utopia.

There will be civil war all over Europe before we let our culture be destroyed.

At August 09, 2009 12:50 PM, Blogger tiberge said...

@ LH

Thank you for your comment. It is accurate and relevant to the issue in this post. When you say "civil war" you are coming close to Gérard Pince's solution: he feels the impatience of the immigrants to take over definitively will set off riots and other violence and this will force the French to take some kind of military action. I don't know if he is right. I do know that it never had to come to this, but the government, the propaganda machines, the media, the professors and "intellectuals" have given the French people no other recourse. They could have used the voting booths more effectively, but chose not to. Possibly they felt that none of the opposition candidates was really worth anything.

At August 09, 2009 1:11 PM, Blogger LH said...

One major problem with immigration is this, I am sure it is the same for France, as with England: nobody asked the people if they wanted rampant immigration.

Another hypocrisy is this, socialists believe society is important, that groups of people can hold power, that class and other structures affect peoples' live. Yet when you apply their logic to immigrants they call you a bigot. If you can say the aristocracy or capitalists behave in a certain way to keep power from the working class (who in turn act in a certain way), then why can you not say the muslims act - as a group - in a way deleterious to the issues of France.

At August 09, 2009 2:52 PM, Blogger zazie said...

Of course we have beeen betrayed ; of course we might have voted differently ; but, do you remember 1983 ? It happened in Dreux ; I was not living there ; I had never voted FN ; suddenly, in about 30 seconds, all was clear, and we knew what enemies we would have to face in the future ; on that evening, self-appointed "democrats" started a riot because a member of th FN had been elected ; I did not like Le Pen that much, but in those days he spoke common sense when he told us that he was like anybody else, prefering his sister to this cousin, and his cousin to his neighbour, etc....He tried to remind the French of what they owed to their kin ; for that he was called all sorts of names ; his opponents should be careful : when next to everything is lost, people may lose their heads and demand that the traitors should get the punishment they seem to be asking for!
Yes, definitely, the French should have listened to him when he was speaking common sense ; now it is too late ; we shall have to stand up and fight back ; ready?

At August 10, 2009 12:00 PM, Anonymous dauphin_b612 said...

If only this could be printed in the major newspapers, that would be half the battle.

@ zazie

Yes, I remember the days of « Les Français d'abord » (The French First) which seemed only common sense--I actually used to defend JMLP! It's too bad he got so far from that message with his obsessions.

I think before people take to the streets (even politically speaking as far as voting), more information has to be made available, so I think the blogs are helping in that. I hope there is not a civil war, but I think there may first be a point where the "forces of order" will be overwhelmed, then people will have to defend themselves. It would not be a pretty scenario and no one should wish it. I hope there is still time for people to wake up politically, but difficult when there is a strangle-hold on information.

At August 10, 2009 8:16 PM, Blogger Thomas Bolding Hansen said...

I have always wondered if it could be true, that 1/3 children born in France, could be from a Maghreb family?

Does anyone here know the source of this number?

But i basically 15 percent, and maybe more actually are immigrants or their descendants, it would be highly possible that it´s true.

Plus the major explanation why France stands for the absolute majority of whole Europes natural growth.


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