Immigration: Calculating the Real Figures
It's good to be an economist and to know how to count. While we sit around wondering how many non-European immigrants there are in France, economist Gérard Pince has figured it out in an easy-as-one-two-three procedure that he shares with us in a post dated July 30. His opening paragraph describes how invalid the official figures are; he then moves on to his own method:
In fact, we have a precise starting point: that of the population in 1946 (40, 246,742), bearing in mind that foreigners and immigrants at that time were 88% ethnic Europeans. We then add to this initial population the natural growth (minus immigration) until 1974, date of the family reunification law, and we get 49,105,699 in 1975. We then apply to this figure the rate of natural growth in three French departments where immigration remained until that time negligible: la Manche, Deux Sèvres and Vendée. We arrive at the figure for 2008 of 53 million ethnic Europeans. Since INSEE (National Institute for Statistics and Economic Studies) estimates our total population in 2008 to be 62 million, it follows that black, Arab and Asian ethnicities represent today 9 million persons (plus 500,000 illegals, he adds in a footnote).
The result of this method corresponds to our daily observations. If anyone wants to challenge this figure, let him produce his own! Faced with the silence of our research institutions, our figures take on a de facto official character. (...)
In his next (more complicated) post, Gérard Pince continues where he left off:
As of January 1, 2008, the population of metropolitan France was 62 million: 53 million ethnic Europeans and 9.5 million Third World immigrants. From this real and objective data long term projections indicate that ethnic Frenchmen will be a minority in their own land in 2060. (...)
We estimate that the European population will remain at its current level of 53 million in the year 2060. The natural growth rates of our three model departments have been divided by two (for la Manche and Vendée) and by three (for Deux Sèvres) between 1975/82 and 1999/2006. Moreover, the countries of Eastern Europe without non-European populations, have already recorded negative rates (-0.3% in Hungary, -0.1% in the Czech Republic). Seen in this context, the zero rate we have predicted corresponds to a rather optimistic hypothesis.
Note: He points out in a footnote that Eastern Europe was protected from immigration by the Iron Curtain.
On the other hand, the non-European population already present on our territory will go from 9.5 to 24 million in 2060. Bearing in mind that the natural rate of growth of the 62 million inhabitants is 0.4% and that of the 53 million Europeans (calculated from our three model departments) is 0.17%, it follows that the 9.5 million Third Worlders will grow by 1.75%.
Note: He then acknowledges that there are studies indicating that the rate of growth among immigrants will slow down, but he has no evidence that this will be the case. Especially since the immigrant growth rate in the Parisian region of Seine, Seine-Saint-Denis,and Val de Marne has increased considerably since 75/82 and 99/2006.
We must also take into account the migratory waves that will occur between 2008 and 2060. In the absence of new statistics, we must base our estimates on those of 2006. That year France recorded 235,000 official entries, to which must be added about 100,000 illegals (see note at the end for an explanation of this figure), or a rounded-off total of 350,000 persons just from the Third World (Maghreb, Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia,etc...) We're using, by default, this annual figure for the entire period even though it is an optimistic guess. The Left, the large corporations, the EU Commission in Brussels and most of our intellectuals are demanding ever more immigration. Moreover, due to demographic growth and the insecurity and poverty endemic to Africa, the migratory pressures may well become greater and greater. We could, therefore, go beyond the 350,000 annual entries in the future.
Next we must calculate on a yearly basis the natural growth of these waves. We decided upon a rate of 1.75%, identical to the one we have for the population that is already here. This rate, higher than the one for Turkey (1.3%) but much lower than that of the Congo (3.1%) takes into account the growing proportion of immigrants from sub-Saharan Africa. Following these calculations, the future immigration between 2008 and 2060 will bring us a total input of 31 million persons.
So in 2060 we will have a France of 108 million inhabitants, composed of 55 million persons (24 + 31) belonging to black, Arab and Asian ethnicities and 53 million Europeans. Yes, 2060 may appear far off, but well before this date Europeans under the age of 40 will be a minority in relation to the Third Worlders of the same age group.
These results belie the affirmations of those who claim France is not a country of massive immigration. In fact, our "thought police" now acknowledge that the face of France is going to be transformed very soon and adhere, in substance, to the following line: "You were deceived for thirty years with bogus statistics. Now, the situation is irreversible. In the name of anti-racism and obligatory 'métissage', you ought to be happy to have become a minority in your own country!"
Now imagine that the Algerian government announces that soon Europeans will be in the majority in Algeria! There would be a general insurrection. That means that this "post racial" doctrine, which claims to be universal, only applies in reality to the Western populations who are told to dissolve themselves as rapidly as possible. Alas, the majority of Frenchmen are resigned to this evolution that seems inevitable.
I think, however, that there is hope this bomb can be defused. I will explain later.
Note: His solution will be the topic of another post.
Note: In one of several footnotes Pince explains how the official statistics on the number of illegal entries in 2006 are falsified, and how he arrived at the figure of 100,000:
To minimize the figures on immigration, the research groups and the media only take into account permanent immigration, since they feel that temporary migrants have no wish to remain on our territory. In reality, the temporary migrants do remain. (For example, since 2002, a circular authorizes students to apply for a salaried position when their studies are over. As for those requesting asylum, about 15% of the applications are accepted, which means that the others stay on as illegals). To these official figures are added the illegal waves of migrants. Besides those denied asylum, France grants 900,000 tourist visas every year to North and sub-Saharan Africans. The Court of Accounts speaks of certain dysfunctional elements in this system which give rise to the observation that many visitors remain illegally in France after their visa has expired. Based on this, we can, therefore, estimate at 100,000 the number of illegal entries (per year).
The photo below has little to do with the post itself. It is taken from the French Wikipedia article on the Maghreb, and shows Roman ruins in Timgad, Algeria. I found it a striking reminder of North Africa's Roman (and later Christian) heritage.