A Comeback For the Front National

Note: Some of the following was written Sunday night. Some was written Monday afternoon. I was not able to finish it in time for a definitive post on Sunday. The above graphic shows the approximate percentages won by the different parties or coaltions. Dark blue is Sarkozy, dark pink is the PS (Socialist Party), green of course is the ecologists, and gray, the Front National.

Here are bits and pieces of information regarding the election results. It seems the Front National did very well, and the Le Pens (father and daughter) drank a champagne toast. If there is an overall winner, it would have to be the Socialists and the Ecologists. However, the very good scores obtained by the FN can only add to Sarkozy's defeat. It seems unlikely that Sarkozy will be able to woo FN voters this time. It is, however, probable that the Socialists will merge with any qualified smaller Socialist group. Thus Sarkozy's people may face near-total defeat next Sunday.

First, English-language readers can consult this summary from the New York Times. It's clear if not highly detailed.

The Front National is now qualified to run in at least 12 regions in the second round of elections to be held next Sunday. This excellent score for the FN was the big upset of the elections.

In Ile-de-France Valérie Pécresse, of the presidential majority (i.e. Sarkozy's coalition) came out ahead with 27.76% of the votes, followed by the Socialist Jean-Paul Huchon (25.26%), and in third place Cécile Duflot of the Europe-Ecologie Party (16.58%). The Front National candidate, Marie-Christine Arnautu with 9.29% just missed the 10% needed to qualify for the second round. Despite the victory for Pécresse, this is considered to be a mediocre score for her and a major gain for the ecologists.

In Lorraine, despite the anti-minaret campaign, Annick Martin did not do well at all, winning only 3% of the votes. She cannot move on to the second round, nor can she merge with another group. Any party receiving fewer than 5% of the votes is out. If a party receives 5%, they can, in the second round, merge with a larger entity. (This information is from Wikipedia)

In Nord-Pas de Calais, Marine Le Pen came in third with 18.31% of the votes behind the Socialists (26.16%) and the presidential majority (19%). She can move on to the second round, but it isn't clear yet if she will merge with another entity or remain autonomous. (It is hard to imagine her not remaining autonomous).

In Poitou-Charentes, former presidential candidate of the Socialist Party, Ségolène Royal came out way ahead of the others with 38.98% of the votes. The Front National came in fourth with 7.72 %.

In Franche-Comté, as in several other regions, the Front National is in third place, indicating that a three-way race ("triangulaire") could occur during the second round, since merging seems unlikely. The various left-wing parties have no trouble merging. But the Front National, by remaining autonomous, can prevent Sarkozy's UMP from winning.

In the region called PACA (Provence-Alpes-Côtes-d'Azur), where Jean-Marie Le Pen himself was a candidate, a four-way-race is possible. The UMP won 26.5%, the Socialists 25.5%, the Front National 20.9% and the Green Party 11.3%. But the Greens may merge with the Socialists. If Le Pen stays alone, he will make it much harder for Sarkozy to win. The Socialists will then have an easy victory. The score of 20.9% for Le Pen is remarkable, considering his age, and the condition of his party in recent months. However, one factor to consider is that two days ago (Friday March 12), Le Pen appeared in court, in Marseilles, as a result of a lawsuit by LICRA (League Against Racism and Anti-Semitism), over the anti-Islamization poster created by the FNJ (Front National Jeunesse), the youth movement of the FN. In my post on the regional elections I indicated that the case had been thrown out of court (in Nanterre) on March 8 but would be heard again on March 12. As it turned out, the tribunal of Marseilles banned the poster, declaring:

"This poster is not only liable to provoke a feeling of rejection and animosity with regard to a group of people whose religious practices are targeted - women and a nationality - but, besides, it addresses essentially those young people who are more easily influenced. This provocative poster constitutes, by its nature, a manifestly illicit disturbance."

In short, only the youth of Algerian origin have the right to draw France draped in the colors of the Algerian flag, and only Muslims have the right to show France sprouting minarets.

Source: Yves Daoudal

A communiqué from the Front National states:

(The Front National) denounces a decision made under public pressure and threats from the Algerian government and from the FLN, supported by the Socialist Foreign Minister of the Sarkozy government.

Note: FLN = Front de Liberation Nationale. This was the coalition of Socialist revolutionary parties that rebelled against French rule in Algeria. Members of the party are now the rulers of Algeria, including the Algerian president Abdelaziz Bouteflika.

(The Front National) solemnly warns the voters that it is becoming impossible to evoke or to criticize the policy of massive immigration or the communitarian abuses it brings in its wake.

Patriots are gagged on orders from a foreign country, since it is forbidden to say no to Islamism, to the burka, to the multiplication of large mosques and to the fatally invasive risks that now threaten France.

The Front National will appeal the decision and asks the French people to show their refusal of these methods, worthy of the Soviet Union, next Sunday in the voting booths.

Source: Yves Daoudal

Here are more remarks from Yves Daoudal on the election results.

Abstentions reached 53.65% or 14 points more than the first round of the 2004 regional elections. This confirms that there is a major crisis and that the UMPS is responsible. Nicolas Sarkozy only made it worse with his celebrity persona and his openness to the Left.

The Establishment Right (UMP and its nine satellite parties) received barely 26%, its worst showing of the Fifth Republic. None of the 20 ministers and vice-ministers have a chance of winning in the second round. Even in Guadeloupe, the secretary of State for Overseas Affairs, Marie-Luce Penchard, was eliminated in the first round.

The polls were dead wrong, particularly as concerns the Front National (11.74%). Jean-Marie Le Pen was a "surprise" with his better-than 20% (in the PACA region). And Bruno Gollnisch received 14%, not 10%. The FN can move on to the second round in 12 regions, not the 3 predicted. Nicolas Sarkozy did not kill the Front National, which is making a spectacular comeback just behind the so-called ecologists. (...)

All interested parties - the UMP, the Socialists, Ecologists and the Front National will now appeal to the voters who abstained, urging them to come out next Sunday to "make a difference", as we say in America.

Le Figaro has a file on the Regional Elections 2010, for those who read French.