Aznavour Defies Sarkozy

Here's an article from Les 4 Vérités that raises again the question of Turkey's possible admission into the European Union. This topic comes back regularly, as analysts realistic about the hidden agenda of Nicolas Sarkozy, ponder his next move. They have always felt that, despite his protests to the contrary, he would like to secretly facilitate Turkey's entry. Pierre Baudouin discusses here the Armenian connection to the story:

Among the diplomatic cables revealed by Wikileaks, there is one that did not interest the media, but that should interest the candidates in the next presidential election.

It concerns a telegram sent by the American Ambassador to Paris, Craig Stapleton, about Franco-Turkish relations, dated June 12 2007 (the French legislative elections were not yet over!). Stapleton reveals that Nicolas Sarkozy, in order to improve relations with Turkey, proposed to reduce from 35 to 31 the number of chapters (i.e. topics) to negotiate for Turkey's admission to the European Union and to bury in the Senate the law on denial of the Armenian genocide.

A reminder that in 2001, on the initiative of the senator-mayor of Marseilles, Jean-Claude Gaudin, the Senate, then the entire Parliament, had passed a law "recognizing" the Armenian genocide (even though such a recognition is still punishable by ten years in prison according to the Turkish penal code…) Since then, the National Assembly voted on a bill in 2006 criminalizing the denial of the Armenian genocide and the Armenian community is waiting for the Senate to do the same.

Several points seem to me problematical in this affair. First, the bill voted on in 2006 must have become obsolete since we had a new administration in 2007. Should the entire legislative process start over again, or would the Senate vote be enough, as both Turks and Armenians seem to believe?

Next, I am not sure that it's good policy to link the admission of Turkey to the recognition of the Armenian genocide. Perhaps there will come a time when Turkey will be ready to recognize this genocide. It doesn't necessarily follow that it is mature enough for entry into the EU - which remains, whether the bleeding hearts like it or not, a "Christian club" and even the "club" of nations that fought against the expansionism of the Ottoman Empire!

Finally, at bottom, I have extreme reservations about "memory laws". I continue to feel that the Parliament must not dictate "orthodoxy" in historical (or other) matters. These memory laws are even counter-productive, since one cannot help but think that the law is coming to the rescue of historical arguments that are too fragile.

Note: I agree completely. I have said in other posts on this topic of hate speech, memory laws, recognition by Turkey of the genocide, and legislation that forces people to adopt an historical point of view, that more harm is done than good. I even believe that no good is done at all, and I believe the legislators know it. The Gayssot law that criminalized "negationism" was what spurred Jean-Marie Le Pen and others to make their provocative remarks, with the result that the protected minority was more hated than ever.

And I remember not too long ago that the Armenian president said it didn't matter whether Turkey acknowledged the genocide or not, the truth was still the truth.

But all of that is not really new in the columns of Les 4 Vérités. There is something that seems to me, not more important, but more interesting in the current political context.

Connected no doubt to the revelations of the Wikileaks cable - which clearly indicates that Nicolas Sarkozy was preparing, as early as June 2007, to violate his commitment to oppose the entry of Turkey into Europe - Charles Aznavour recently declared in an article in Le Dauphiné Libéré (January 23, 2011) that he was thinking of using his fame to force Sarkozy to keep his promises, recalling that the Armenian community of 500,000 persons was worth is "weight" in votes, and that all Frenchmen of Armenian origin would follow him.

Even if, in actual fact, only 70% of the members of the Armenians "followed" Aznavour in his fight, and if only half of those voted for the Right (i.e., Sarkozy's Right), that would mean Sarkozy would be deprived of 175,000 votes in the first round. One may say that is nothing considering there are 40 million registered voters. But we mustn't forget that Lionel Jospin missed out on the second round in 2002 by fewer than 200,000 votes.

I don't know if Aznavour will follow through. But it is certain that his strategy is effective… and that it must be causing Elysée to tremble!

Here are Aznavour's words from Le Dauphiné Libéré:

"At this time I am very preoccupied by the Armenian question. President Sarkozy went back a bit on his promises at the time of the election. He is wrong, because the Armenian community represents an important number of persons compared to the Turkish community. The Armenian people are responsible, courageous. They gave their blood for their country. It's the first time I've ever said it, but if the president does not change, I will use the Armenian vote when the time comes.

We represent at least 400,000 or 500,000 persons in France and any Frenchman of Armenian origin will follow me, I know it. If this continues, I will be totally committed. I do not engage in politics, but I have considerable political power. I know that I'm risking my life when I say that. But at my age, after all, risking one's life means risking how many years?

Note: I very much doubt that Elysée is trembling. Sarkozy usually manages to win over those who have been his friends and who have strayed from the fold. But it would be nice if the Armenian vote really meant something in the election. It's not likely, but one never knows... Armenians tend to be conservative. If Marine Le Pen stresses the dangers of Turkey in the EU, some Armenians may be tempted to vote for her. Recently, for the first time, I read an article in which the possibility of Marine Le Pen winning not only the first round, but the presidency itself was suggested.