Early Results
The first results of the cantonal elections have been posted at Le Salon Beige. This is not the final tally, but it probably means something:
The Socialist Party - 35.05%
The UMP - 18.89%
The Front National - 10.01%
Marine Le Pen said on TF1:
"The Front National has always been a respectable party. The caricature is waning, these elections are an immense encouragement for the FN."
According to polls, the total abstentions vary from 54 to 56%.
This is on the whole bad news, IMO. Half of the voting population did not vote. They are clearly not Socialists. But they do not like Sarkozy, and they are too timid or cowardly to vote for the FN even in a local election where the population has everything to gain from having a general councilor who is also a patriot. If this happens in May 2012, it means France will have a Socialist president. Whether it is Martine Aubry (whose husband defends terrorists) or Dominique Strauss-Kahn (who has no affinity for France, to put it politely), it will be cause for tears.
Let's just keep hoping that something changes for the better between now and then.
Update: I no sooner posted this than I had second thoughts. Since the FN did not have candidates in all cantons, this could account for some abstentions. There must have been people who refused to choose between the PS and the UMP, and so they stayed home. That cannot happen in the presidential election, at least not in the first round. Abstentions in the second round will be determined by what happens in the first round.
Labels: Elections 2011
posted by tiberge @ 2:33 PM
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5 Comments:
In the cantons that did have FN candidates, what was their vote total?
I'm not sure either that one can say with precision what this truly represents or predicts. It's not great, but we'll see. My feeling last year was that Sarko would lose FN and other patriotic votes, turning the country over to the socialists in 2012. I was already looking beyond that to 2017, but Marine gave me hope that maybe, maybe...
If I had two suggestions to give her to siphon away UMPS votes and gain more mainstream votes, it would be 1: lose the jeans, as they don't make her look like a serious candidate to be a head of state, and 2: make a clear statement against those who deny the Holocaust or admire Vichy. Unfortunately, people may find Marine more likeable than her father, but they perceive the FN party as being a haven for such people, and though they may agree with Marine, they don't trust the party. She might lose some hardcore FN voters with such a declaration, but she would gain many more. She says she wants to reform the party's image, but I think that she fears offending the party base too much. It's not enough to say the FN is not "racist" and accepts all religions as she has said. Even with her media appeal, it will take a lot of PR damage repair to make the FN look like a mainstream party.
In any case, I think the results will at least be much better than in 2002, and by 2017, the FN might win, if demographics haven't overtaken us by then. But I will continue to hope...
At first I too was disappointed by the numbers, but as the FN didn't make the second round in most places 10% might be good. Furthermore, professional anti-Far Rightists always warn that low turnouts help extremist parties, so this might've proved a boon for the FN.
80% of FN voters are people who believes Holocaust was an hoax, and feels nostalgic about the French Algeria and Vichy. FN is a force that attacks not only "democratic" lies, buy also "republican" hypocresies.
If you want to vote some anti-immigration and zionist loving party, there are thousands of them, but FN doesn't fall into that category.
So run behind Sarkozy if you want socialists not to win in 2012, or vote FN if you want to stop the freemasons New World Order.
btw, FN won only in two cantons: Carpentras (thanks to the votes of M. de Lépinau -MPF- followers) and Brignoles (where FN candidate beat a commie).
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