Doubts About the Polls
One week from the first round Patrick Poivre d'Arvor, a television journalist well-known in France for attracting bizarre controversies, has made some new controversial statements.
"I remember, in 2002, questioning Lionel Jospin on this topic, on Wednesday, and I said: 'Isn't there a danger?' He looked at me wide-eyed: 'No, that's not possible, what are you talking about?' He should have been mobilizing. So anything is possible and I think that Marine Le Pen is not exactly in the polls today where she will be in a week."
A reminder that Socialist Lionel Jospin lost the first round in 2002, and Jean-Marie Le Pen won. Le Pen later lost in the second round to Jacques Chirac, who won over the immigrant votes.
A repeat scenario is possible, with Marine facing off against François Hollande in the second round, with a big participation from immigrants, feminists, homosexuals, Communists, and possibly even prisoners who have asked to be released on election day to vote!
I repeat what I have said in other posts: for Marine to win the election she needs Sarkozy's voters.
English Wikipedia has an interesting article on Patrick Poivre d'Arvor, known familiarly as PPDA. (If you get an error message, try waiting a few seconds for a correction.)
Labels: Election 2012, Marine Le Pen, Media
posted by tiberge @ 5:33 PM
9 comments
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9 Comments:
Exactly. If Marine succeeds in the first round she will consorted in the second round. Neither Sarkozy, nor hollande are palatable coalition companions. It will a dilema for her. She'll have to choose. Either choice will dilute her weight and power. France has a cuadriga of trojan horses in her midst. The immigrant vote, a critical weight facto, can swing fortunes one way or another. Imigranst must never have been given the right to vote, particularly the immigrant who has establish colonies and settlements, like Africans and Arabs and muslims. This election is a key pointer as to whether France can be rescued in a democratic fashion or be irretrievably lost in the democratic miasma. The immigrant vote will constitute an ever larger looming danger to France's demographics. We may find ourselves in a position where the Republic with its millions of immigrants can no longer serve nor safeguard french national interests . Marine's motto is sacred. First France, at a national level, then Europe.
@ anonymous 4:45
I hate to do this, but could you clarify your first sentence? I don't understand "consorted". And I don't understand when you say "she'll have to choose." Choose between what and what?
If she confronts Hollande in the second round she will not get Sarkozy's voters (except a few perhaps) nor will she get the immigrants. She will only get the usual 20% FN voters plus the as yet unknown number of others who have come on board her program. But she will lose massively to the Socialists, Communists, immigrants, Muslims, feminists, homosexuals, etc...
A miracle might get her into the second round. But the Second Coming of Christ will be needed to get her to Elysée Palace.
As far as I know she is not planning any kind of coalition except with parties that have views similar to her own. These are very small parties. And this coalition, should it take place, will occur after the election in anticipation of the legislative elections.
You guys are worried for nothing. Sarkozy will win this election. Immigrant turn out will be as low as always. Homosexuals support Sarkozy
@ anonymous 6:10
What you say is entirely possible. No one really knows. The polls are not accurate, and I heard that 90% of the people refuse to be polled!
Marine Le Pen feels Sarkozy has definitely lost. She could be wrong.
Despite all our speculation, polls, analyses, debates, we really have no idea what will happen next Sunday.
Tiberge
What I say is she will be consorted-courted by the both rascals, Hollande-sarkozy in order to tilt the balance either way. That is if she garners sufficient number of votes. Has she a chance of winning outright, by way of a miracle yes, if not she may still have the rod to tilt the election one way or another ; again that is if she can become a critical factor to the the outcome of the second round . This is what I meant, I may be entirely wrong in my assessment, but I still keep faith with it. The other real alternative is that both Hollande -sarkozy factions, visualizing the genuine threat of Marine,end up ganging up on her by backing each other up, depending as to who leads the polls after the first round. I still, regretfully, surmise that through this electorally rigged charade the system , the two party system- the backbone of our kleptocratic sham democracy-republic , can only perpetuate itself.
It's more likely that Sarkozy and Hollande will gang up on Marine. It is not likely that Marine will voluntarily tilt the election towards anyone other than herself. She could not possibly help either Sarkozy or Hollande without losing all the credibility she has gained.
As for the immigrants - we cannot be sure . They won the election for Jacques Chirac in 2002, they could easily do it again in 2012. I don't know who they would vote for if Sarkozy faces off against Marine Le Pen in the second round. Probably Sarkozy. But this scenario is less likely. First likelihood: Sarkozy vs Hollande, second likelihood: Marine vs Hollande, third: Sarkozy vs Marine.
I sincerely hope I'm wrong and that she makes it to the second round.
Now, if Marine loses the first round, she has said that she will not issue any instruction to her voters. How can she tell them to vote for Sarko or Hollande? It's a moral impossibility (as of now). Regarding her future political decisions, we just don't know. We don't know if she is a patriot first or a politician first. Rather than comparing her to Joan of Arc, I would prefer to compare her to Bonparte. She is 100% republican with some appreciation of the monarchy. She may not be very religious but she is religious enough to realize, as did Bonaparte (and Napoleon), that the Church must be allowed to survive. She is a soldier. Not like Bonaparte, of course, but I'll bet she would go into battle if she had to to defend the Republic against a coalition of Europeists.
I just don't want her to meet her Waterloo. But it is inevitable that she will.
anonymous (same as above)
all the big money is betting on Sarkozy. The business community is a far more reliable barometer of electoral results than people give it credit. After Merah, French society has been split in two. A radical pro-Merah extreme, and the majority, now with either Sarkozy or Le Pen. The media are having a ball because the only ones willing to openly boast of their political choices are on the left, and many in the small radical fringe. The election results will be ABSOLUTELY different from the polls. This be a big blow to polling as such (media has short term memory), but you'll note that I was someone who pointed it out early. Le Pen is perfectly capable fo winning the first round, in a stunning defeat. The second round will be Le Pen and Sarkozy. The media will be astonished. This isn't fantasy. People refuse polls. The vast majority of french have had it, they will vent their anger in a few days.
I thank everyone for their input. It's interesting that big money is betting on Sarkozy. If he and Marine face off and she loses to Sarkozy it will be a devastating blow, but she will be well-placed to be an effective and galvanizing voice of the opposition for the next five years.
But, what is "big money" in this case? I believe it must be the European financial policies, plus the Arab financial investments in France. It is not just American business, as it has been so often in the past. Sarko is the Euro, Marine is sovereignty. She would restore a national currency and curtail Arab investments. She would be a protectionist and help smaller businesses and farmers. She has never said she would harm big businesses, but she probably would try to make them adhere to a "national preference" policy in their hiring.
As for her winning the second round and becoming president, I'll believe it when I see it. Sarko's voters would have to turn on him.
Anonymous 6:10 says we're worrying about nothing. Well, if Sarko wins, we'll have plenty to worry about.
I should add that Marine herself seems to imply (from some of her remarks in her TV interviews) that she would really rather face off against François Hollande than Nicolas Sarkozy, because the people would be given a real choice. They would be able to see the gulf between the two candidates more clearly.
She may have a harder time debating Sarkozy in the two weeks between the two rounds. He will appear to be a conservative. He will appear to be anti-crime, and anti-immigration, and anti-Islam, and she will have a tougher time clarifying her own position.
He will do this with the help of his ghost-writers and his advisers who will attempt to demonize Marine in some way, based on the Front National's past, and on whatever dirt they can skillfully throw at her.
It doesn't appear that the people will be easily fooled this time, but will it be enough?
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