Here are some recent comments (somewhat abridged and edited) about the election from my readers. As the big day approaches the polls are saying that Sarkozy and Hollande are in a tight race in the first round. But anything is possible and I am remaining as realistic as possible:
- You guys are worried for nothing. Sarkozy will win this election. Immigrant turn out will be as low as always. Homosexuals support Sarkozy.
This following reader responded to the possibility of Marine losing the first round and being courted by the candidates of the second round:
- What I say is she will be courted by both rascals, Hollande-Sarkozy in order to tilt the balance either way. That is if she garners sufficient number of votes. Has she a chance of winning outright, by way of a miracle yes, if not she may still have the rod to tilt the election one way or another; again that is if she can become a critical factor to the the outcome of the second round. This is what I meant, I may be entirely wrong in my assessment, but I still keep faith with it. The other real alternative is that both Hollande-Sarkozy factions, visualizing the genuine threat of Marine, end up ganging up on her by backing each other up, depending as to who leads the polls after the first round. I still, regretfully, surmise that through this electorally rigged charade the system, the two party system - the backbone of our kleptocratic sham democracy-republic, can only perpetuate itself.
I responded to the above comment:
It's more likely that Sarkozy and Hollande will gang up on Marine. It is not likely that Marine will voluntarily tilt the election towards anyone other than herself. She could not possibly help either Sarkozy or Hollande without losing all the credibility she has gained.
As for the immigrants - we cannot be sure. They won the election for Jacques Chirac in 2002, they could easily do it again in 2012.
Now, if Marine loses the first round, she has said that she will not issue any instruction to her voters. How can she tell them to vote for Sarko or Hollande? It's a moral impossibility (as of now). Regarding her future political decisions, we just don't know. We don't know if she is a patriot first or a politician first. Rather than comparing her to Joan of Arc, I would prefer to compare her to Bonparte. She is 100% republican with some appreciation of the monarchy. She may not be very religious but she is religious enough to realize, as did Bonaparte (and Napoleon), that the Church must be allowed to survive. She is a soldier. Not like Bonaparte, of course, but I'll bet she would go into battle if she had to to defend the Republic against a coalition of Europeists.
I don't want her to meet her Waterloo. But it is inevitable that she will.
The following reader introduced the notion that big money will call the election:
- All the big money is betting on Sarkozy. The business community is a far more reliable barometer of electoral results than people give it credit. After Merah, French society has been split in two. A radical pro-Merah extreme, and the majority, now with either Sarkozy or Le Pen. The media are having a ball because the only ones willing to openly boast of their political choices are on the left, and many in the small radical fringe. The election results will be ABSOLUTELY different from the polls. This be a big blow to polling as such (media has short term memory), but you'll note that I was someone who pointed it out early. Le Pen is perfectly capable of winning the first round, in a stunning defeat. The second round will be Le Pen and Sarkozy. The media will be astonished. This isn't fantasy. People refuse polls. The vast majority of French have had it, they will vent their anger in a few days.
- It's interesting that big money is betting on Sarkozy.
But, what is "big money" in this case? I believe it must be the European financial policies, plus the Arab financial investments in France. It is not just American business, as it has been so often in the past (although today American big business is largely left-oriented and pro-euro). Sarko is the euro, Marine is sovereignty. She would restore a national currency and curtail Arab investments. She would be a protectionist and help smaller businesses and farmers. She has never said she would oppose big businesses, but she probably would try to make them adhere to a "national preference" policy in their hiring.
As for her winning the second round and becoming president, I'll believe it when I see it. Sarko's voters would have to turn on him.
Anonymous says we're worrying about nothing. Well, if Sarko wins, we'll have plenty to worry about.
Labels: Election 2012, François Hollande, Marine Le Pen, Nicolas Sarkozy